Data Mining Earthquake Prediction with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and Peak Ground Acceleration

  • Dadang Priyanto Universitas Bumigora
  • Bambang Krismono Triwijoyo Universitas Bumigora
  • Deny Jollyta Institut Bisnis Dan Teknologi Pelita Indonesia
  • Hairani Hairani Universitas Bumigora
  • Ni Gusti Ayu Dasriani Universitas Bumigora, Mataram, Indonesia
Keywords: Earthquake hazard prediction, Function base, Predictor variable, Peak ground acceleration, Nonparametric regression


Earthquake research has not yielded promising results because earthquakes have uncertain data parameters, and one of the methods to overcome the problem of uncertain parameters is the nonparametric method, namely Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). Sumbawa Island is part of the territory of Indonesia and is in the position of three active earth plates, so Sumbawa is prone to earthquake hazards. Therefore, this research is important to do. This study aimed to analyze earthquake hazard prediction on the island of Sumbawa by using the nonparametric MARS and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) methods to determine the risk of earthquake hazards. The method used in this study was MARS, which has two completed stages: Forward Stepwise and Backward Stepwise. The results of this study were based on testing and parameter analysis obtained a Mathematical model with 11 basis functions (BF) that contribute to the response variable, namely (BF) 1,2,3,4,5,7,9,11, and the basis functions do not contribute 6, 8, and 10. The predictor variables with the greatest influence were 100% Epicenter Distance and 73.8% Magnitude. The conclusion of this study is based on the highest PGA values in the areas most prone to earthquake hazards in Sumbawa, namely Mapin Kebak, Mapin Rea, Pulau Panjang, and Pulau Saringi.


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How to Cite
Priyanto, D., Triwijoyo, B., Jollyta, D., Hairani, H., & Dasriani, N. (2023). Data Mining Earthquake Prediction with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and Peak Ground Acceleration. MATRIK : Jurnal Manajemen, Teknik Informatika Dan Rekayasa Komputer, 22(3), 583-592.

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