Analysis of Underdeveloped Regency Using Logistic Threshold Regression Model
Abstract
Regional development inequality causes some regions to lag behind other regions. An underdeveloped
regency is a regency where territories and people are less developed than other regions nationally. The
government has set a Human Development Index (HDI) target of 62.2 to 62.7 to accelerate the development of underdeveloped regency and prevent the regions from lagging. This study aims to evaluate
the HDI target and obtain the HDI value that reduces the risk of underdeveloped regency and acquires
variables that affect underdeveloped regency’s status. The logistic threshold regression model is used
in this study with HDI as the threshold variable, 22 indicators for determining underdeveloped regency
as explanatory variables, and the underdeveloped regency’s status as the response variable. Threshold
regression can handle non-linear relationships between response and explanatory variables, including
various types of threshold models such as step, segmented, hinge, stegmented, and upper hinge. By applying a hinge threshold regression model using the R package ’chngpt,’ this study addresses non-linear
relationships and categorical responses. The results showed a threshold effect with a threshold value of
62.9, indicating that the HDI target can reduce the region’s risk of being left behind.
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