Performance Comparison of LSTM, XGBoost, and Residual-Correction Hybrid LSTM–XGBoost Models for Bitcoin Price Forecasting
Authors
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Ihsan Maulana Anwas
Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah, Jakarta, Indonesia
https://orcid.org/0009-0005-0706-8301
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Feri Fahrianto
Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah, Jakarta, Indonesia
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8022-3508
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Imam Marzuki Shofi
Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah, Jakarta, Indonesia
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Ajif Yunizar Pratama
Kyushu Institut of Technology, Fukuoka, Japan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30812/matrik.v25i2.5983Keywords:
Bitcoin, Hybrid LSTM-XGBoost, Price Forecasting, Time Series, XGBoostAbstract
The objective of this study is to systematically compare the predictive performance of Long Short- Term Memory (LSTM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and a Hybrid LSTM–XGBoost model for next-day Bitcoin (BTC–USD) closing-price forecasting. The research method employs a quantitative time-series modeling approach using a decade-long daily Bitcoin price dataset. A strictly chronological train–test split and a one-step-ahead forecasting scheme are applied to prevent lookahead bias and ensure experimental validity. Model performance is evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and the coefficient of determination R2 on the original price scale. The results demonstrate that the Hybrid LSTM–XGBoost model consistently outperforms the standalone LSTM and XGBoost models across all evaluation metrics, indicating superior predictive accuracy and robustness under high market volatility. The contribution of this study lies in providing a controlled, uniform, and methodologically rigorous head-to-head comparison of deep learning, machine learning, and hybrid architectures for Bitcoin price forecasting, thereby enriching the empirical literature and offering a reliable foundation for the development of adaptive decision-support systemsin volatile cryptocurrency investment environments.
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