Determinants of Under-five Mortality Due to Pneumonia: A Negative Binomial Regression Analysis

  • Dhea Prawidia Politeknik Statistika STIS, Indonesia
  • Fitri Kartiasih Politeknik Statistika STIS
  • Lidya Zhafirah Politeknik Statistika STIS, Indonesia
Keywords: Health, Indonesia, Negative Binomial, Pneumonia, Under-five Mortality


The importance of developing the health sector in Indonesia is one of the targets in the RPJMN
2020–2024, one of which focuses on children's health, especially during their under-five years.
This is because this period is vulnerable to various diseases that can even cause death.
Pneumonia is one of the main causes of under-five mortality in Indonesia. In under-fives,
pneumonia is the number one killer in the world. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, it ranks second after
diarrhea. On average, the disease affects half a million children a year. This study aims to
identify and analyze the risk of variables that affect the number of under-five mortality due to
pneumonia in Indonesia in 2021. The novelty of this research focuses on the macro variables
used, making it easier for policy makers to make decisions. The research method used is
negative binomial regression. The results showed that the highest number of under-five
mortality due to pneumonia was in Central Java Province. Meanwhile, the lowest was in Jambi
Province, South Sumatra, Riau Islands, DKI Jakarta, North Kalimantan, Southeast Sulawesi, and
Papua. Per capita income has a significant and negative effect on the number of under-five
mortality due to pneumonia, while the number of under-fives with severe pneumonia has a
significant positive effect on the number of under-five mortality due to pneumonia in


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How to Cite
D. Prawidia, F. Kartiasih, and L. Zhafirah, “Determinants of Under-five Mortality Due to Pneumonia: A Negative Binomial Regression Analysis”, Jurnal Varian, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 65 - 74, Oct. 2023.