Determinants of Under-five Mortality Due to Pneumonia: A Negative Binomial Regression Analysis

  • Dhea Prawidia Politeknik Statistika STIS, Indonesia
  • Lidya Zhafirah Politeknik Statistika STIS, Indonesia
  • Nurzikri Saputra Politeknik Statistika STIS, Indonesia
  • Fitri Kartiasih Politeknik Statistika STIS
  • Uma Sahu Lakshmi Narain college of Technology and Excellence, India
Keywords: Child, Indonesia;, Negative Binomial;, Pneumonia;, Under-five Mortality.


Pneumonia is one of the main causes of under-five mortality in Indonesia. In under-fives, pneumonia
is the number one killer in the world. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, it ranks second after diarrhea. On
average, the disease affects half a million children a year. This study aims to identify and analyze the
risk of variables that affect the number of under-five mortality due to pneumonia in Indonesia in 2021.
The novelty of this research focuses on the macro variables used, making it easier for policy makers to
make decisions. The research method used is negative binomial regression. The results showed that the
highest number of under-five mortality due to pneumonia was in Central Java Province. Meanwhile, the
lowest was in Jambi Province, South Sumatra, Riau Islands, DKI Jakarta, North Kalimantan, Southeast
Sulawesi, and Papua. The per capita income significantly reduces the number of under-five mortality
due to pneumonia, while the number of under-fives with severe pneumonia significantly reduces the
number of under-five mortality due to pneumonia in Indonesia. The government needs attention to
reduce the death rate of children under five due to pneumonia by providing social protection in the
fields of health and education for underprivileged communities.


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How to Cite
D. Prawidia, L. Zhafirah, N. Saputra, F. Kartiasih, and U. Sahu, “Determinants of Under-five Mortality Due to Pneumonia: A Negative Binomial Regression Analysis”, Jurnal Varian, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 59 - 66, Oct. 2023.